Initial moves by the second Trump administration to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine and improve relations with Russia have been received positively in Moscow — a development that could complicate Communist China’s hopes for a strong anti-U.S. international bloc.
Russo-American relations have been severely strained since the 2010s and particularly since Russia started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago, prompting Western support for the Ukrainian defense effort and extensive sanctions against Moscow.
Meanwhile, ties between the Russian Federation and People’s Republic of China (PRC) deepened as China came to supply Russian with critical industrial products for its lengthy “special military operation.”
Since coming to office on Jan. 20, U.S. President Donald Trump has directed his administration to engage with Moscow to find a resolution to the Ukraine war, bypassing the governments of Europe, as well as the PRC, in the peace process. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he spoke with Putin about “the great benefit” that the U.S. and Russia will “someday have in working together.”
Initial talks between the U.S. and Russia were held between the countries’ top diplomats at a Feb. 18 (Tuesday) in Riyadh, capital of Saudi Arabia. Ukrainian officials were not present for the meeting, where broader U.S.-China ties were discussed in addition to the war, though the second Trump administration has pledged to make Ukraine a party to the negotiations.
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Following the meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed hopes for a stronger economic and geopolitical relationship with Russia, though “obviously, we’d have to see that conflict come to a successful and enduring end in order for that to be possible,” he told reporters.
Lavrov said that the conversation with the Americans was “very useful,” and confirmed that Washington and Moscow were working on a phased peace process, reestablishment of diplomatic channels, and arranging a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Putin. “We did not just listen, but we heard each other, and I have reason to believe that the American side has become more aware of our position,” he said at a press conference.
A ‘Reverse Nixon’?
“President Trump has been moving at pace to bring about peace in the Middle East and Europe so that his administration can focus on the PRC,” notes SinoInsider, a political risk consultancy focusing on Chinese elite politics, in a recent article.
That the U.S. under Trump is pivoting to view Communist China, not Russia, as its main adversary can be seen in its recent rejection of a proposal by Beijing to help play the role of “peacemaker” in the Ukraine negotiations, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. In statements to the outlet, the White House called China’s plan “not viable at all.”
In a Feb. 17 entry of its newsletter, SinoInsider analysts wrote that depending on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attitude towards balancing relations with the U.S. and PRC, the Trump administration might be able to arrange a “reverse Nixon” by distancing Russia from Beijing.
“Reverse Nixon” refers to the Cold War policy pursued by the United States started by President Richard Nixon, who engaged Communist China — then a closed, impoverished country ruled by Chairman Mao Zedong — to partner with the U.S. in opposing the Soviet Union.
Towards the end of the Cold War, the Soviet Union and China — which nearly fought a nuclear war over border conflicts and disagreements as to the correct interpretation of communist ideology — began to improve their relations. The trend continued in the decades following the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union into Russia, Ukraine, and 13 other independent republics.
U.S. President Donald Trump has advocated a policy of “un-uniting” Russia and China, saying that a permanent alliance between the two would be disastrous for America’s position in the world. Russia has an abundance of natural resources and arable land, while China has a huge workforce and industrial base, meaning that they could dominate the Eurasian landmass if working in cooperation.
Russia and China have a “strategic partnership,” but not a formal alliance like those the U.S. has with its NATO allies, Japan, and other countries. And while Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have met each other frequently, many observers point to the conflicts the two countries have had, as well as other, more subtle sources of friction preventing Moscow-Beijing ties from being truly “without limits” as official rhetoric has claimed.
Russian response
Vice President JD Vance, in comments to the Wall Street Journal, said, “It’s not in Putin’s interest to be the little brother in a coalition with China.”
While Russian officials’ reception to the U.S. offers of negotiation have been warm, no concrete steps towards peace have yet been made. It remains to be seen how many concessions — much of it involving the question of Ukraine’s territory and future security prospects — will be given.
“Should Putin want an end to the war and if his terms [in negotiations on the Ukraine war] are met, Beijing could find itself almost entirely sidelined from the peace talks and process,” per SinoInsider.
“In such a scenario, it is not implausible that President Trump would later build on renewed U.S.-Russian relations to do a ‘reverse Nixon,’ or split Beijing and Moscow with the end goal of gaining a substantial edge over the PRC in great power competition.”
However, the risk consultancy noted that even if the Trump administration’s diplomatic efforts are able to distance Moscow from the PRC, Russia would be unlikely to completely forgo its “friendship” with China or join the West entirely.
Bilateral trade between Russia and China has grown by billions in recent years, starting from around US$140 billion in 2019 to over US$240 billion in 2024. Much of that increase was due to increased purchases of raw materials, including oil, by China, and industrial products by the Russians in the wake of Western sanctions.
In one sign of a possible shift in the Kremlin’s political attitudes, a Russian policy expert and media host recently made comments criticizing the PRC for selling “thousands of drones” that “are killing our soldiers” — a definitive weapon in the Ukraine war — to both sides of the conflict, despite proclaiming friendship with Moscow.
Alexander Losev, a member of the Presidium of the Russian Foreign and Defense Policy Council, said on the “Reflection” (Otrazhenie) program of the state-run Public Television Russia (OTR) broadcaster that while there had once been a slavishly infatuation in Russia towards the West, now the same problem was evident in Russia’s stances with regard to Beijing. He compared the situation to that of when the ancient Russians were subjugated under the Mongol horde.
Taking aim at the “lavish” expenses taken to hold Chinese New Year celebrations in Moscow, Losev compared the “red lanterns” lining the streets of the Russian capital to the “red blood” spilled by Russian soldiers killed by Chinese-made drones of the Ukrainian armed forces on the battlefield. “Is it right for us to be celebrating foreign holidays when the special military operation is still in progress?” he questioned.
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